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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-09-28 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 281437 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Isaac Graphics
2024-09-28 16:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2024 14:34:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2024 14:34:18 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-09-28 16:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281431 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 PM GMT Sat Sep 28 2024 Isaac's strengthening trend from the past day or so appears to have leveled off. Isaac still has a clear eye and a relatively symmetric appearance, although some dry air entrainment is evident coming in from the southwest. Intensity estimates range from 77 to 93 kt, and initial intensity has been held at 90 kt, in agreement with TAFB's Dvorak classification of 5.0. The wind radii have been modified to reflect values from 1245 UTC ASCAT-B pass. Isaac is already over relatively cool water and will reach progressively lower SSTs in the coming day or two, all while encountering increasingly hostile shear. Thus, Isaac's intensity has most likely peaked, and gradual weakening today is forecast to accelerate through the weekend. This weakening will coincide with an extratropical transition, which based on global models, will complete in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast and is in close agreement with consensus aids through the forecast period. Isaac is moving east-northeastward, 060/17 kt. Steering flow should decrease as Isaac passes in the vicinity of a mid- to upper- level ridge over the next day or so, which should lead to slower forward motion through the remainder of its warm-core existence. As Isaac becomes extratropical, it should turn more northerly as a shortwave trough digs to the west of the cyclone. The official track forecast remains unchanged through 48 hours but has again trended to the right of the previous forecast beyond 48 hours to adjust closer to consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 40.2N 39.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 41.4N 37.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 42.9N 36.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 44.0N 33.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 45.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 01/0000Z 47.1N 29.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 01/1200Z 49.6N 28.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 53.5N 28.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z 56.6N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Konarik/Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics