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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-09-28 16:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 556 WTNT41 KNHC 281441 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce seems to be experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. After maintaining a decent convective burst overnight, southerly wind shear appears to be pulling the thunderstorms to the north, partially exposing the low-level circulation. A new burst of convection is now growing near the center. Satellite-derived surface wind data measured a few wind speeds greater than 40 kt in the northwest quadrant, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The storm continues to move at 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow and weakening subtropical ridge, and should continue generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or so. As a deep-layer trough over the northern Atlantic amplifies and breaks the ridge, Joyce should slow and turn more poleward early next week. The official forecast still shows the storm not recurving to the north, as it is expected to be a shallow vortex at that time, and instead drifts north-northwestward until the system dissipates, similar to the previous prediction. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to remain marginal around Joyce in the coming days. The SHIPS model diagnostics show the deep-layer vertical wind shear staying moderate-to-strong, likely forcing dry air into Joyce's circulation. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and calls for little change in intensity today, followed by steady weakening through early next week. Joyce is still expected to become a remnant low by day 3, however, models are now showing the system opening into a trough and dissipating by day 4, and this is reflected in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-09-28 16:45:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 210 FONT11 KNHC 281439 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-09-28 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 281437 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.0W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics