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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 8

2024-10-04 10:44:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040844 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 32.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 32.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 32.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.1N 33.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.5N 34.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.0N 36.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.8N 37.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 13.0N 38.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 40.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 47.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 32.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-10-04 07:21:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 040521 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-10-04 07:07:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 040507 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98): A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited development is possible on Friday while the low moves slowly northward or north-northeastward, but atmospheric conditions should become less conducive and prevent further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter, some slow development is possible while the system drifts northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg


Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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