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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 38
2024-10-11 22:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 112033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Leslie continues to be a sheared tropical cyclone, struggling to produce convection. The center of the system continues to be exposed at it is accelerating to the northeast within an unfavorable environment. The subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have come down some between 30-45 kt with the final CI value from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt. This is in good agreement with the satellite derived winds from the scatterometer pass earlier today. Thus, will keep the intensity steady at 45 kt with this advisory. The storm will remain in a hostile environment with strong vertical wind shear and dry air inhibiting convection over the system for the next day or so. In about 18-24 h the shear is forecast to decrease for a short-period of time, and model simulated satellite suggest that Leslie will be able to regain some convection near the center again, which will prolong the post-tropical transition. However, by 36 hours the shear will increase and Leslie will be crossing into cooler sea surface temperatures. This will all be occuring as a frontal boundary approaches Leslie,and the system will begin to acquire some extratropical characteristics, eventually becoming post tropical at that time. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the system to remain steady with some gradual weakening as the system becomes post-tropical in 36 h. Leslie has been accelerating towards the northeast, or 035/15 kt, between the flow of an approaching trough to the west and the subtropical ridge to the east. Leslie will continue to move northeastward then east-northeastward with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly poleward in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of forward motion, and lies near the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 33.5N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 36.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 13/1800Z 37.2N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 14/0600Z 36.7N 25.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/1800Z 36.0N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-11 22:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 27.6, -49.4 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 38
2024-10-11 22:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 112032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 ...LESLIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 49.4W ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 49.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and a northeastward to east-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast the next few days with Leslie forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics