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Tropical Storm Milton Public Advisory Number 3
2024-10-06 04:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 679 WTNT34 KNHC 060231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida late Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 95.1 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Milton Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-10-06 04:31:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 975 WTNT24 KNHC 060230 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.1W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.1W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 140NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 210NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 95.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-06 01:25:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 052325 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located just off the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle portions of next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics