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Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-10-22 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221455 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating Oscar has had difficulty locating a center this morning. Data from the plane and visible satellite images suggest that the circulation is becoming elongated. Also, the system may have weakened below tropical storm strength, but we will wait for an upcoming scatterometer pass that will provide a wider swath of wind data before downgrading it. Thus, for the moment, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt. Nonetheless, since all of the stronger winds are occurring east of the center, the Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas is being discontinued. Given the poor definition of the center, the initial motion is an uncertain 040/10 kt. Oscar should accelerate northeastward along the eastern side of a mid- to upper-level trough during the next day or so. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous NHC prediction in 24-36 hours. Within the next couple of days, the global models indicate that the trough will cause baroclinic cyclogenesis to occur near or north of Oscar. The resulting extratropical surface low is likely to absorb or merge with the tropical cyclone or its remnants. The atmospheric environment, consisting of strong shear and relatively dry air, is expected to remain hostile for the maintenance of a tropical cyclone, so no strengthening is anticipated. Indeed, it is possible that Oscar could dissipate before it interacts with the new extratropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Localized flash flooding will be possible today across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.9N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)
2024-10-22 16:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 the center of Oscar was located near 22.9, -74.1 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 14
2024-10-22 16:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221455 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 ...OSCAR IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 74.1W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 74.1 West. Oscar is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a faster northeastward motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will be moving away from the Bahamas later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar could dissipate later today, or merge with an extratropical low pressure system within the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas today. RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected through today. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics