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Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 10A
2024-10-21 19:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211753 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 75.8W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 75.8 West. Oscar is now moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north is expected this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to emerge off the northern coast of Cuba this afternoon or evening and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while the center remains over land today, followed by slight restrengthening after the center moves back over water and near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. An ASOS weather station in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba recently reported a wind gust of 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area of Cuba today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in parts of the southeastern Bahamas and are possible in the watch area in parts of the central Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts of 7 to 14 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches are expected across eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. This rainfall will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides. Preliminary reports indicate there have already been over 10 inches of rain in spots in the Province of Guantanamo. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 3 to 5 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 8 inches. This rainfall could cause localized flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Elevated water levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of eastern Cuba will gradually subside later today and tonight. Near the coast, large and dangerous waves will continue into early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-10-21 16:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 322 WTNT41 KNHC 211445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate that the center of Oscar, although not very easy to locate, is still moving over eastern Cuba this morning. Radar observations from Guantanamo Bay show that the inner core of the tropical cyclone has become severely disrupted. The system has continued to weaken while interacting with the very mountainous terrain, and the initial wind speed is estimated to have decreased to near 35 kt, although this may be generous. The initial motion is an uncertain 300/3 kt. It is possible that the center of the system may re-form near the northern coast of Cuba later today. In any event, Oscar is expected to turn northward and northeastward on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the western Bahamas through tonight. The system should then accelerate northeastward over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and western Atlantic ahead of the aforementioned trough. Global model predictions show the circulation of Oscar becoming absorbed by a larger, developing non-tropical low pressure area to the west of Bermuda by day 3. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the dynamical model consensus. Some additional weakening is expected while Oscar continues to interact with the land mass of eastern Cuba today, and Oscar could weaken to a tropical depression before the circulation moves over water. Thereafter, the system will be contending with increasing westerly vertical wind shear and drier air. Therefore only slight restrengthening is anticipated within the next day or so, followed by little change in strength before Oscar becomes absorbed by the non-tropical low pressure system. The primary hazard associated with Oscar will continue to be heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over the mountainous terrain of eastern Cuba. Preliminary reports in the Province of Guantanamo in eastern Cuba already indicate more than 10 inches of rain have fallen in spots. Key Messages: 1. Through midweek, heavy rainfall from Oscar will lead to areas of significant, life-threatening flash flooding along with mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially within the Sierra Maestra. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today across portions of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA $$ Forecaster Pasch/Delgado
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2024-10-21 16:52:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 167 FONT11 KNHC 211444 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 1500 UTC MON OCT 21 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics