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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-11-04 21:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 166 WTNT23 KNHC 042053 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 76.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics
2024-11-04 19:02:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 18:02:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 15:28:40 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 4A
2024-11-04 19:01:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 189 WTNT33 KNHC 041801 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 100 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA LATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 76.4W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 76.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and a hurricane by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eighteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics