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Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 7A
2024-11-05 12:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051146 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 700 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...RAFAEL PASSING SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 78.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba should closely monitor this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 78.4 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by this afternoon and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early this afternoon and are expected in parts of west-central Cuba, possible farther east in central Cuba, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba where rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected. Isolated higher totals up to 10 inches are anticipated across the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to latter part of the week. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Graphics
2024-11-05 09:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Nov 2024 08:56:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Nov 2024 08:56:35 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-11-05 09:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 050853 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 13(39) 5(44) 1(45) X(45) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 24(56) 5(61) 1(62) X(62) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 7(35) 1(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 13(31) 1(32) 1(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) 1(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) 2(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10(32) 1(33) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 20(41) 4(45) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 7(32) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 15(31) 6(37) 1(38) X(38) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X 3( 3) 58(61) 18(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 19(19) 16(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 15(16) 62(78) 3(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 1( 1) 48(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 41(43) 32(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 45(48) 5(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MONTEGO BAY 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 55 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics