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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 25
2024-11-09 15:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091443 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Rafael is a sheared tropical storm. High-resolution AMSR2 passive microwave images received after the previous advisory showed the northeastward tilt of the vortex with height. Recent data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm the surface center lies on the southwestern edge of the deep convective mass over the central Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds are likely confined to the northeast quadrant of the storm underneath this sheared convection. Dropsonde data indicate the central pressure has risen to around 999 mb, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on flight-level winds from the aircraft. The storm is likely to continue weakening due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Moderate westerly shear (15-20 kt) through Sunday and mid-level relative humidities falling below 40 percent should make it difficult for Rafael to become better organized and sustain deep convection going forward. Steady weakening is shown in the NHC intensity forecast through Sunday, and Rafael is now predicted to become a post-tropical remnant low in 48 h. Rafael is moving west-northwestward (290/5 kt), but the storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico within weakening steering currents during the next 24-36 h. As Rafael becomes weak and shallow, the track guidance agrees on a turn toward the south and south-southwest within the low-level flow through the middle of next week. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which lies near the center of the guidance envelope in good agreement with the TVCA simple consensus. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.2N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 25.4N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 25.6N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 25.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 25.1N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 23.6N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 22.4N 93.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 18.5N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2024-11-09 15:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 091443 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC SAT NOV 09 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 25
2024-11-09 15:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND RAFAEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday, then turn toward the south or south-southwest by Monday night. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast through early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Rainfall indirectly associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to 3 to 6 inches of rain, with local amounts to 10 inches, across portions of the Upper Texas Coast into Southwest and Central Louisiana through Sunday morning. This rain will lead to potentially significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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