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Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 8
2024-11-05 15:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...RAFAEL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF WESTERN JAMAICA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 78.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 78.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near western Jamaica through early this afternoon, and be near or over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early this afternoon and are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-11-05 15:49:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051448 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-11-05 12:51:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 051151 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Rafael, located over the west-central Caribbean Sea. Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics