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Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-11-05 15:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 051449 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 1500 UTC TUE NOV 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 X 7( 7) 32(39) 6(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X 8( 8) 48(56) 7(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 12(32) 6(38) X(38) 1(39) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 8(32) X(32) 1(33) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 1(21) 1(22) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 1(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 3(24) 1(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) 1(15) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 7(29) 1(30) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 18(42) 3(45) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) 6(33) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 5( 5) 11(16) 11(27) 5(32) 2(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X 11(11) 71(82) 3(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) HAVANA 50 X 1( 1) 37(38) 2(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) HAVANA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 47(49) 26(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 15(15) 30(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ISLE OF PINES 64 X 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CIENFUEGOS 34 4 70(74) 6(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) CIENFUEGOS 50 X 20(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 8 29(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-05 15:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF WESTERN JAMAICA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... As of 10:00 AM EST Tue Nov 5 the center of Rafael was located near 17.8, -78.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 8
2024-11-05 15:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 ...RAFAEL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF WESTERN JAMAICA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 78.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 78.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near western Jamaica through early this afternoon, and be near or over the Cayman Islands this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early this afternoon and are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics