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Tropical Storm Boris Graphics

2020-06-26 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 02:35:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jun 2020 02:35:43 GMT

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Tropical Storm Boris Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-06-26 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 Deep convection associated with Boris has decreased in coverage since the previous advisory, however a new band of convection has recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak current intensity (CI) number of T2.5 or 35 kt from SAB. Boris remains within an area of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, however dry mid-level air just to the north and northwest of the storm continues to be entrained into the circulation. As a result, little change in strength is anticipated over the next 12 h or so, and after that time, Boris will be moving into the drier and more stable air mass which should cause gradual weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate between 72 and 96 h. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290 at 8 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next 24 hours while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward, then west- southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and along the southern side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.4N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm Boris (EP3/EP032020)

2020-06-26 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...BORIS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM HST Thu Jun 25 the center of Boris was located near 11.4, -137.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Boris Public Advisory Number 7

2020-06-26 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Boris Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020 500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020 ...BORIS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 137.9W ABOUT 1280 MI...2055 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 2005 MI...3230 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Boris was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 137.9 West. Boris is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday afternoon. A turn toward the west is forecast by Friday night, with a west or west-southwest motion continuing through Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, Boris is forecast to weaken back to a depression on Friday or Friday night, and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Boris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2020-06-26 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM BORIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BORIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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