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Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics

2018-08-18 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 02:34:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 03:22:06 GMT

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-08-18 04:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 221 WTNT45 KNHC 180232 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Organized deep convection associated with Ernesto has dissipated after the issuance of the last advisory. If it does not return, which seems unlikely with the system moving over SSTs of 16C or less, Ernesto should become a post-tropical cyclone by early Saturday. Geostationary and microwave imagery along with ASCAT data indicate that the mid-level circulation has begun to separate from the low-level center. A partial ASCAT-A pass from 2148 UTC showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds south and southeast of the center, and on that basis the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Ernesto is forecast to weaken only a little during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday. Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt and this motion should continue until dissipation. The new NHC forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 50.4N 25.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 52.3N 18.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 19/0000Z 54.1N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2018-08-18 04:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 220 FONT15 KNHC 180232 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 0300 UTC SAT AUG 18 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 50.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

2018-08-18 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERNESTO RACING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SATURDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 50.4, -25.6 with movement ENE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 12

2018-08-18 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 305 WTNT35 KNHC 180231 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 ...ERNESTO RACING ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SATURDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...50.4N 25.6W ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM N OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 50.4 North, longitude 25.6 West. Ernesto is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track the post-tropical cyclone and its remnants will move across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical overnight, and slight weakening is forecast to occur Saturday while Ernesto merges with a frontal zone by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the south and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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