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Subtropical Storm Andrea Graphics

2019-05-21 10:37:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 08:37:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 May 2019 08:37:01 GMT

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Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-05-21 10:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 210835 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 During the past few hours, deep convection has waned considerably, likely due to the entrainment of dry mid-level from the south and modest southerly vertical wind shear as indciated by GOES-16 mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery. As mentioned in the previous advisory discussion, an earlier ASCAT overpass just barely caught 35-kt winds about 50-55 nmi northeast of the low-level center, which was likely just outside the radius of maximum winds. Since slightly stronger winds could have existed closer to the center, the initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory despite the aforementioned degradation in the convective pattern. The initial motion estimate is 360/05 kt. It appears that Andrea is slowing down, implying that a turn toward the northeast should occur within the next 6-12 h as a deep-layer trough and cold front steadily approach the cyclone from the northwest. The global and regional models remain in good agreement that Andrea will turn northeastward later today, and then move eastward by tonight and Wednesday when the cyclone becomes embedded within the approaching deep-layer mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory and lies a little south of the middle of the track guidance envelope. Although deep convection has decreased markedly, thunderstorm activity should redevelop some by this afternoon and tonight when Andrea will be moving eastward over an SST thermal ridge and into a region of convective instability that exist between 65W-68W longitude. which will also be coincident with the vertical wind shear decreasing to less than 5 kt as per SHIPS model output. However, some slight spin down of the vortex will likely occur before convection can re-fire and re-strengthens the system. Thus, the intensity forecast essentially calls for little change in strength for the next 24 h or so, followed by weakening due to increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, and then merger with a cold front on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN consensus model and the weakening trend noted in the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 30.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 30.7N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 31.2N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 31.3N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Andrea (AT1/AL012019)

2019-05-21 10:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue May 21 the center of Andrea was located near 30.0, -69.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 3

2019-05-21 10:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 210835 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Andrea Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA MAINTAINING A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 69.0W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 69.0 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and that general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast is forecast by this afternoon, followed by an eastward motion by late tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest and south of Bermuda during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by weakening late tonight. Andrea is expected to dissipate on Wednesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Subtropical Storm Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2019-05-21 10:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 210835 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 0900 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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