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Tropical Storm Xavier Graphics

2018-11-05 21:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 20:37:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Nov 2018 21:21:48 GMT

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Tropical Storm Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-11-05 21:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 All of Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with embedded shower activity. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a pair of recent ASCAT passes over the circulation. Strong southwesterly shear and the surrounding dry environment finally appear to have cut off the production of deep convection, and although intermittent bursts of thunderstorms are still possible, it is unlikely that the circulation will be able to produce persistent organized convection. Therefore, Xavier's degeneration into a remnant low has been moved up by 24 hours in the official forecast, although it is entirely possible that it could become a post-tropical low as early as tonight. Xavier's winds are also expected to continue to gradually diminish, likely falling below tropical-storm-force overnight or early Tuesday. The remnant low should then dissipate by day 4. The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at 4 kt. A low-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific should drive the now-shallow circulation west-northwestward to westward at a slightly faster speed during the next few days. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward to account for recent motion trends, but it otherwise lies through the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2018-11-05 21:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052033 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 2100 UTC MON NOV 05 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Xavier (EP5/EP252018)

2018-11-05 21:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...XAVIER WEAKENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Nov 5 the center of Xavier was located near 19.0, -106.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 13

2018-11-05 21:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052033 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...XAVIER WEAKENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 106.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 106.9 West. Xavier is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight. A westward motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center will continue moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico through tonight and should subside on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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