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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics

2019-11-24 22:00:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Nov 2019 21:00:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Nov 2019 21:24:23 GMT

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 22

2019-11-24 21:59:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 242059 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 Sebastien is gradually losing tropical characteristics. Satellite images show a large shield of relatively cold cloud tops on the north side of the system and in a band that extends from east of the center south-southwestward. This cloud pattern resembles an extratropical cyclone. However, satellite images and microwave data also show a small area of deep convection lingering over the center, which is why the system is still designated a tropical cyclone for now. That being said, it is still not clear that the surface circulation of the storm is well defined. Hopefully, ASCAT data later this evening can help assess the structure of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which is in agreement with the most recent SATCON estimate from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Sebastien is expected to slowly weaken as it remains in very strong wind shear conditions while moving over progressively colder waters. FSU phase-analysis diagrams from the global models all show Sebastien becoming fully extratropical overnight, and the NHC forecast follows that scenario. The extratropical low is expected to merge with another cyclone in 24 to 36 hours. It is also possible, as alluded to above, that Sebastien could open into a trough before then. Sebastien is racing toward the east-northeast ahead of a cold front, and the initial motion estimate is 060/34 kt. This continued heading at an even faster rate is expected within the fast mid-latitude flow until the cyclone dissipates. Regardless of whether it is a tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone, or a remnant trough, Sebastien or its remnants will likely bring gusty winds and heavy rains to portions of the Azores through Monday morning. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 39.2N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 42.2N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 25/1800Z 46.3N 17.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2019-11-24 21:59:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 242058 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 2100 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 48 X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PONTA DELGADA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

2019-11-24 21:58:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SEBASTIEN OR ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Nov 24 the center of Sebastien was located near 39.2, -32.5 with movement ENE at 39 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 22

2019-11-24 21:58:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 242058 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 PM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...SEBASTIEN OR ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.2N 32.5W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Sebastien. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 39.2 North, longitude 32.5 West. Sebastien is moving toward the east-northeast near 39 mph (63 km/h). An even faster motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sebastien will pass near the western Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow decrease in the maximum winds is expected during the next day or so. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical by early Monday, and it could degenerate into a trough of low pressure at any time during the next couple of days. Regardless of status, Sebastien or its remnants will likely continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds for at least a couple more days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND AND RAIN: Sebastien or its remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores through Monday morning. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Sebastien are expected to affect the Azores during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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