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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-24 19:54:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

534 ABNT20 KNHC 241754 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has stopped issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Kirk, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and continues to issue advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie, located about 1200 miles west of the Azores. A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1400 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system is producing showers and thunderstorms along with winds to gale force over the northern portion of the wave. Redevelopment of this system is possible over the next few days until it encounters highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 450 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly more conducive for development during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern United States coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of Subtropical Storm Leslie along a cold front over the central Atlantic by Wednesday. Leslie and the non-tropical low are expected to merge over the central Atlantic, where conditions appear conducive for the low to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-24 13:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

541 ABNT20 KNHC 241141 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Kirk, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on Subtropical Storm Leslie located more than 1000 miles west of the Azores. A broad area of low pressure located about midway between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to produce a limited amount of shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to become slightly more conducive for development during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase, limiting the chances for additional development, while the system moves northward near the southeastern United States coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form north of Subtropical Storm Leslie along a cold front over the central Atlantic by Wednesday. Leslie and the non-tropical low are expected to merge over the central Atlantic, where conditions appear conducive for the low to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics by the end of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Public Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Leslie are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-24 13:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

505 ABPZ20 KNHC 241140 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a little over 300 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple days while the system moves west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western portion of the eastern North Pacific basin in a couple of days. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves westward toward the central Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Kirk Graphics

2018-09-24 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 08:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 09:22:03 GMT

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Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-09-24 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 632 WTNT42 KNHC 240833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 After having a minimal amount of deep convection late yesterday, Kirk is now producing some thunderstorm activity in fragmented bands around the estimated center. However, earlier ASCAT data and low cloud motion suggest that the circulation resembles a sharp trough instead of a closed low that is necessary for a tropical cyclone. Hopefully more visible satellite images and additional scatterometer data will help better assess the circulation and status of Kirk. For now, advisories are being maintained on the system, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a blend of the Dvorak estimates. Kirk is moving very quickly to the west at about 21 kt, which is likely the reason why the system has been struggling. A continued westward motion but at a decreasing forward speed is expected during the next two to three days while the cyclone remains on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, a large deep-layer low pressure system over the central Atlantic should cause Kirk to gain more latitude. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and remains near the southern side of the guidance envelope near the GFS and ECMWF models. This forecast takes Kirk toward the Lesser Antilles in 3 to 4 days and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Although Kirk will be moving over warmer SSTs and remain in relatively moist conditions, its fast forward speed will likely limit the system from strengthening significantly during the next few days, so only a little intensification is predicted. The global models show a notable increase in westerly shear when Kirk reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea in about 4 days, and that should cause weakening and possibly even dissipation by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the lower side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the NOAA HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 9.5N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 9.9N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 10.2N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 12.1N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 13.2N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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