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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics

2020-07-12 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 20:34:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Jul 2020 20:34:27 GMT

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 25

2020-07-12 22:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for several hours. The cyclone's circulation now consists of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds as it continues to move over waters of about 23 C and into a progressively drier and more stable surrounding atmosphere. Although intensity estimates continue to steadily decease, the vortex is taking some additional time to spin down, as indicated by a recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed maximum winds of 35 kt over a portion of the cyclone. Based on the ASCAT data, Cristina's intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory. Given the environmental conditions, it is unlikely that deep convection will redevelop near Cristina's center, and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low soon. The associated winds will continue to decrease over the next couple of days and the low is forecast to open into a trough within a few days. Cristina is moving westward at 11 kt and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation, as the system is steered by the low level easterlies. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 20.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2020-07-12 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 122032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

2020-07-12 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -125.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 25

2020-07-12 22:31:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 122031 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 ...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 125.5W ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Christina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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