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Tropical Depression Karen Graphics

2019-09-23 22:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:43:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 20:43:39 GMT

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Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-09-23 22:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232040 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Karen has become increasingly disorganized today. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations suggest that there is a broad low-level circulation, but the aircraft struggled to find a well-defined center. Based on the current lack of organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. The environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain quite hostile, with dry mid-level air and strong northeasterly shear continuing overnight. After Karen moves north of Puerto Rico over the western Atlantic, it may find itself in a more favorable upper-level environment, but given the current structure of the cyclone it should take some time for any potential re-strengthening to occur. As a result, the long-range intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory and remains of very low confidence. Karen is moving northwestward or 335/11 kt. Karen should turn northward later tonight or early Tuesday toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic caused by Jerry. A northward to north-northeast motion should then take the storm over the western Atlantic well to the east of the Bahamas around mid- week. After that time, a deep-layer ridge is forecast to build over the southeastern United States and far western Atlantic, which should cause Karen to slow down and become nearly stationary at days 4 and 5. The track guidance has trended toward Karen gaining more latitude before slowing, and the new NHC track forecast as been adjusted accordingly. The latter portion of the track forecast is still quite uncertain as the dynamical model guidance and their ensembles still exhibit large spread. Although Karen in shown to remain a tropical depression as it passed Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the tropical storm warning is begin maintained since only a small increase in the wind speed would make Karen a tropical storm again. In addition, windward facing areas at high elevation on the islands could experience winds higher than those shown in the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The rainfall and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 17.2N 66.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 18.9N 66.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 21.3N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 23.3N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 27.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2019-09-23 22:40:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 232040 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PONCE PR 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Depression Karen (AT2/AL122019)

2019-09-23 22:39:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...KAREN STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Karen was located near 15.9, -65.6 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Karen Public Advisory Number 7

2019-09-23 22:39:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232039 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KAREN STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 65.6W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 65.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected late tonight or early Tuesday, and a northward to north-northeastward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening, and pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late tonight or Tuesday morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north of Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 3 inches. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area by late tonight. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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