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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-13 06:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 130430 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 0430Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) CAMERON LA 34 2 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) 2(25) 2(27) X(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 6 22(28) 14(42) 2(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 1 10(11) 35(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FREEPORT TX 34 1 34(35) 18(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 25 25(50) 3(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 8( 9) 17(26) 4(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 13 46(59) 11(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 11(11) 13(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 17 52(69) 7(76) X(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 18(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 42(45) 8(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 23(25) 8(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 69 17(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 270N 960W 50 3 22(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARLINGEN TX 34 10 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 22 4(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-13 04:59:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 317 FONT14 KNHC 130259 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 9(10) 8(18) 3(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 10(25) 2(27) X(27) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 8(28) 2(30) X(30) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 12(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 27(37) 6(43) 1(44) X(44) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 23(33) 7(40) 1(41) X(41) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X 16(16) 27(43) 13(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 24(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X 9( 9) 37(46) 12(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 41(44) 17(61) 1(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 22(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 34(35) 33(68) 4(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 41(42) 28(70) 2(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 4( 4) 14(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 17(17) 15(32) 3(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 10(10) 9(19) 2(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 270N 960W 34 13 70(83) 3(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 23(23) 5(28) X(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 13(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 250N 960W 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 250N 960W 50 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-12 22:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 122059 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 10(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) CAMERON LA 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) 2(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) GALVESTON TX 34 X 15(15) 26(41) 3(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 38(41) 9(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X 6( 6) 46(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 35(37) 14(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) MATAGORDA TX 34 1 31(32) 41(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 41(42) 37(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 3( 3) 32(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 26(26) 43(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 21(21) 35(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 7 69(76) 4(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 21(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 1 21(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 29(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 250N 960W 34 86 8(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 250N 960W 50 6 15(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-12 16:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 121457 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 2(19) 1(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 2(17) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 2(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 2(18) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 3(21) 1(22) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) 1(22) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 12(37) 1(38) 1(39) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 2(33) 1(34) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 13(37) 1(38) 1(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 20(40) 5(45) 1(46) 1(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 27(42) 10(52) 1(53) X(53) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 27(47) 8(55) X(55) 1(56) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 6(34) 1(35) X(35) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 11(62) 2(64) X(64) 1(65) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) 1(26) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 49(50) 20(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 1(71) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2021-09-11 16:37:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 111437 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 54.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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