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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2024-06-21 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 211433 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic (AL92). Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Updated: Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and visible satellite imagery indicate that the area of low pressure located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, has developed a well-defined center of circulation and is producing winds to near 35 mph, but the associated showers and thunderstorms are not quite organized enough for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. However, only a small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern Mexico later today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. Local National Weather Service forecasts can be found at www.weather.gov. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg


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