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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-08-11 07:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

929 ABPZ20 KNHC 110532 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy, located more than a thousand miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Some development of this system is possible by the middle of next week while it moves westward away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics

2018-08-11 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 02:38:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 03:25:32 GMT

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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-08-11 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 298 WTPZ43 KNHC 110237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low. Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid- level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the trends in the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Latto

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