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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-19 19:44:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

930 ABPZ20 KNHC 191744 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Nineteen-E located over the southern Gulf of California. An elongated area of low pressure located about 850 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become less organized today. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. An area of disturbed weather is expected to form over the weekend a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some slow development of this system is possible early next week while the system moves nearly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. Forecaster Roth/Blake

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-18 19:42:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

653 ABPZ20 KNHC 181742 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for greater organization, the large size of the system and interaction with land should inhibit the development potential of this disturbance. However, this system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves near Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next several days. The risk of mudlslides and flash flooding may increase as the system tracks northward into northwestern Mexico through Thursday. Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another area of weak low pressure within an elongated trough is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system over the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Carbin/Blake

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-18 13:18:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

959 ABPZ20 KNHC 181118 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system and land interaction is expected to limit the development potential of this disturbance. However, this system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves near Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next several days. Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next several days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-18 07:43:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

334 ABPZ20 KNHC 180543 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 17 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast through south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce widespread but disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system and possible land interaction should prevent any significant or rapid development from occurring during the next day or so. However, this system could become a tropical depression on Wednesday or Thursday as it approaches Baja California Sur and enters the Gulf of California. Regardless of development, this broad disturbance will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico later this week. Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-09-17 19:57:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

236 ABPZ20 KNHC 171757 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 17 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure was located about 250 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California, producing disorganized clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, although the broad nature of the system and potential interaction with land as it moves northward may hamper development. This system could become a tropical depression on Wednesday or Thursday as it approaches Baja California Sur. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of northwestern Mexico later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecast Burke/Blake

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