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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-09-19 07:15:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
497 ABPZ20 KNHC 190514 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. The large size of the system and land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance, and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming are decreasing. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the moisture from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into the southwestern United States on Wednesday and Thursday, enhancing rainfall potential and possible flash flooding in that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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