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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2018-10-14 13:03:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141103 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Oct 14 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small low pressure system is located about 200 miles south- southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization overnight due to moderate winds aloft. However, upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early this week while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward just offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima during the next few days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development of the system while it moves generally westward, parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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