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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-08-11 07:00:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 110500 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system has not become any better organized since yesterday, and the chances of tropical cyclone formation are diminishing. The disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico bringing locally heavy rainfall along portions of that area during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is already merging with the disturbance to its north. Development of this system is becoming less likely. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A disorganized area of disturbed weather continues to be located a little less than 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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