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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-08-11 23:59:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 112159 TWOEP Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the low-pressure system south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become a little better organized during the past several hours. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low has become better defined, with winds just below tropical-storm strength occurring near and to the east of the center. If this recent development trend continues, then advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical storm later this evening while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant development on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A disturbance located a little less than 1000 miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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