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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-08-16 07:27:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 160526 CCA TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 15 2019 Corrected order of paragraphs for graphical product. For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, the system does not appear to have a well-defined surface center. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the tropical eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1700 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing intermittent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not conducive for development and tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated. The low is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph for the new couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...near 0 percent. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico in a day or two. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the low thereafter and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. Regardless of development, moisture associated with the system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central America during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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