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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-08-17 19:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 171739 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. NOAA and the National Science Foundation are currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high. Still, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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