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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-08-18 13:47:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 181147 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala have changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions continue to support slow development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of the week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity near another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has decreased since yesterday. Any development of this system during the next couple of days is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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