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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-27 01:12:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 262312 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower activity is a little better organized than earlier today in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although upper level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later tonight, a tropical depression could still form by Friday night before it becomes absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An elongated trough of low pressure near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A low pressure area is expected to form over the weekend in the far southwestern part of the east Pacific basin. Some subsequent slow development is possible into early next week as the low moves slowly eastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto

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