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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-27 07:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 270535 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small but well-defined low pressure system is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The low is currently producing no thunderstorms and environmental conditions have become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Some slight development is still possible later today if thunderstorm activity increases while the system moves quickly southeastward, however the low is expected to dissipate over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is located near the Pacific coasts of southern Mexico and Central America. This disturbance is expected to move westward and will interact with an elongated trough of low pressure just south of the coast of Mexico during the next day or two. A tropical depression or tropical storm is subsequently likely to form over the weekend or early next week near the southern or southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward along the coast of Mexico and will likely produce heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rainfall is also possible along the Pacific coast of Central America through today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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