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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-01 00:00:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 302159 TWOEP Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM PDT Mon Sep 30 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Special Outlook issued to increase the probability of tropical cyclone formation for the disturbance near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter portions of this week. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore the Mexican coast for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (96E): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have quickly become better organized during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression could form as soon as tonight or tomorrow. This system is forecast to meander for the next couple of days before drifting northward towards the southern coast of Mexico, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2024-09-30 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 20:42:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2024 20:42:14 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 14
2024-09-30 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302040 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts increasing bursts of convection just east and especially just north of the generally exposed low-level center of Joyce. This precludes downgrading Joyce to a post-tropical remnant low with this advisory, though that could happen as early as tonight if the burst does not organize. The intensity of the depression was held at 30 kt for this advisory based on continuity. Joyce has moved very little over the past 12 to 24 hours, but the current motion estimate was held at an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official forecast track shows a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates within 48 h, with little change from the previous track forecast. Continued deep-layer shear and dry air encompassing Joyce is forecast to inhibit additional convection and lead to the cyclone becoming a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous one, showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with dissipation in about 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 22.7N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 26.5N 48.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Konarik/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics