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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-05 19:19:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 051719 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure offshore of the coast of southern Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2024-10-05 17:02:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 15:02:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 15:02:18 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-10-05 16:59:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051459 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass is expected over the system later this morning. The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and this track will bring the system across the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150 miles. The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics