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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-19 13:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 191132 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: South of Southwestern Mexico: After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are expected to move into the eastern Pacific. The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southwestern Mexico in a couple of days. Additional development is expected after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Nadine Graphics
2024-10-19 10:44:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 08:44:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2024 08:44:12 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Nadine Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-10-19 10:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190843 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ASCAT data from 0309 UTC showed that the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea had developed a closed circulation and well-defined center, with a swath of 30-35 kt winds extending north off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Based on that information, the system was designated as Tropical Storm Nadine in the 1 AM CDT (0600 UTC) intermediate advisory. Satellite data and radar images from Belize indicate that Nadine's structure is broad but is gradually becoming better organized, and the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt. Winds to tropical storm force have been measured along the coast as far north as Cancun. The scatterometer data showed that Nadine formed a little farther south than where the disturbance was previously estimated, but the initial motion is still westward (270 degrees) at 8 kt. Nadine should begin moving faster toward the west through the day while being steered by a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. There is good agreement among the track models, and the NHC track forecast lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. On this track, Nadine's center should make landfall along the Belize coast sometime late morning or midday and then continue westward across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine reaches the coast due to low atmospheric wind shear and ocean temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius. Weakening is forecast after Nadine moves inland, and the storm should fall below tropical storm strength later this afternoon. Nadine is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Key Messages: 1. Localized areas of flash flooding are possible along the track of Nadine across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala, and northern Belize. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico within the warning area through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.4N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 17.2N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 17.0N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics