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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-07-01 22:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 012051 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Beryl has maintained a very impressive satellite appearance this afternoon. The well-defined, symmetric eye is surrounded by a ring of infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. The central pressure of the hurricane was falling throughout the day while the Hurricane Hunters sampled the storm, with the last aircraft pass showing the central pressure had fallen to around 946 mb. The latest objective (ADT/AiDT) and subjective (TAFB/SAB) satellite intensity estimates still support an intensity between 125 to 130 kt, which lies in between the earlier reduced flight-level winds and SFMR retrievals from the aircraft. Thus, the initial intensity of Beryl is held at 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward (290/18-kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. A fast west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next several days, bringing the center of the hurricane across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest track guidance has shifted a bit northward this cycle, with some global models including the GFS and ECMWF showing a closer approach to Hispaniola and Jamaica by midweek. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted in this direction, although it still lies slightly to the south of the TVCA and HCCA aids. The official prediction still shows Beryl emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm at day 5, but the track uncertainty is greater with more ensemble spread during this period. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again this evening. While some intensity fluctuations are possible in the near term, the official NHC forecast shows little intensity change through tonight. An increase in mid-level westerly shear is still forecast by midweek, and this should cause some weakening while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. However, Beryl is still forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Once again, there is increased uncertainty later in the forecast period regarding the extent of land interaction and vertical depth of the cyclone once it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and emerges into the southwestern Gulf. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, dangerous waves, and heavy rainfall are expected to continue through this evening while the core of Beryl pulls away from the southern Windward Islands. 2. Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the south coast of Hispaniola. Hurricane conditions are possible in Jamaica on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean, and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.2N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.0W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.4N 69.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.3N 73.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 77.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 17.9N 80.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 18.3N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2024-07-01 22:51:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 611 FONT12 KNHC 012050 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 25(38) 2(40) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 1(35) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) X(29) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CURACAO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) 1(61) X(61) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 17(71) X(71) X(71) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 18(36) X(36) X(36) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 69(77) 6(83) X(83) X(83) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 5(48) X(48) X(48) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 3( 3) 26(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X 10(10) 47(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CAPE BEATA 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PONCE PR 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 13
2024-07-01 22:51:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 082 WTNT32 KNHC 012050 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, DANGEROUS WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 63.2W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadines has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for those islands. The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast from Punta Palenque westward to the border of Haiti. The Tropical Storm Watch for the south coast of Haiti has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Trinidad and Tobago has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grenada * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * St. Lucia * Martinique * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 63.2 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h). The center of Beryl will continue moving away from the southern Windward Islands tonight and move quickly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight through Tuesday and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its moves over the eastern Caribbean. Some weakening is expected in the central Caribbean by midweek, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions will continue in the southern Windward Islands over the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola by late Tuesday. STORM SURGE: Water levels should recede into the evening over the southern Windward Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across the Windward Islands through this evening. Localized maxima of 10 inches are possible, especially in the Grenadines and Grenada. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late tonight into Tuesday. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics