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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-06-29 22:36:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 292036 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Beryl continues to rapidly strengthen, and has now become a hurricane. Satellite images show an expanding central dense overcast feature, and recent microwave images indicate that a partial eyewall has formed. This intensity estimate is in agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB of T4.0/65 kt. Beryl is a compact tropical cyclone, with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend up to 50 n mi from the center. Both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl tomorrow, and the data they collect will be very helpful in assessing the system's structure and intensity. Beryl continues to wobble around, but the general motion has been westward at a quick 19 kt. A strong subtropical ridge should keep the hurricane moving generally westward at only a slightly slower forward speed for the next couple of days. This motion should take Beryl across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. A weakness in the ridge could cause Beryl to gain a little more latitude during the early and middle portions of next week, before turning back slightly to the left as another ridge builds to the northwest of Beryl. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and in fairly good agreement with the various consensus models. Now that Beryl has developed a compact inner core, it seems likely that it will continue to intensify quickly since the hurricane will remain in near ideal environmental conditions during the next day or two. The NHC intensity forecast is again nudged upward in the short term, and shows Beryl becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to it reaching the Windward Islands. Beyond a couple of days, when Beryl is moving across the Caribbean, an increase in shear should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening toward the end of the forecast period. The intensity models are coming into better agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Hurricane Watch and Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands Sunday night and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 10.1N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.3W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-06-29 22:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 292035 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 16(51) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 10(56) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 1(37) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 27(50) X(50) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) X(23) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 31(42) X(42) X(42) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 63(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 78(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 58(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 45(46) 33(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 14(14) 30(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) GRENADA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-06-29 22:35:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL IS NOW A HURRICANE AND FORECAST TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 10.1, -49.3 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics