je.st
news
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-06-30 22:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 302035 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 After rapidly strengthening for two days straight, Beryl's intensity appears to have leveled off. The extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane has a circular 10 n mi eye with mesovorticies within it. However, the convection in the eyewall has become a little less symmetric over the past few hours as it has eroded a bit on the south side. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite estimates. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again later this evening. Beryl continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. A continued relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as subtropical ridging remains the primary steering feature. Only a minor shift to the north has been made this cycle, following the trend in the latest models. Fluctuations in strength are common in major hurricanes in conducive environments, and it is expected that Beryl will also fluctuate in strength for the next day or so. There is high confidence that Beryl will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should induce a slow weakening trend. However, it should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN models. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. All preparations should be rushed to completion today. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 11.1N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-06-30 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 302034 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 25(43) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 3(26) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 2(56) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 12(62) 1(63) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 11(33) X(33) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 65(65) 5(70) X(70) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) X(42) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 29(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) AVES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MARTINIQUE 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 62(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SAINT LUCIA 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 3 92(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT VINCENT 50 1 61(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BARBADOS 34 50 29(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 2 92(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GRENADA 50 1 69(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GRENADA 64 X 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 9 66(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 9
2024-06-30 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 302033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 56.5W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the entire south coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Trinidad * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 56.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight for Dominica, Trinidad, and by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics