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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-06-30 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 302034 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 25(43) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 18(26) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 3(26) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 2(56) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 1(27) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 12(62) 1(63) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 11(33) X(33) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 65(65) 5(70) X(70) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 5(42) X(42) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 29(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) AVES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MARTINIQUE 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 62(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SAINT LUCIA 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 3 92(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SAINT VINCENT 50 1 61(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BARBADOS 34 50 29(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 2 92(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GRENADA 50 1 69(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) GRENADA 64 X 37(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 9 66(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 9
2024-06-30 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 302033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 56.5W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the entire south coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Trinidad * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 56.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall in the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight for Dominica, Trinidad, and by Tuesday afternoon for parts of the southern coast of Hispaniola. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 9
2024-06-30 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 302032 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 56.5W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 56.5W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 55.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.7N 59.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.8N 62.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.2N 66.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.4N 74.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 18.8N 84.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 56.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics