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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-06-30 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 300855 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 16(50) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 2(54) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 46(62) 1(63) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) 1(32) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 3(36) X(36) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) X(52) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 2( 2) 60(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 4( 4) 86(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 1( 1) 58(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BARBADOS 34 X 41(41) 31(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) BARBADOS 50 X 8( 8) 18(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BARBADOS 64 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GRENADA 34 X 2( 2) 74(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GRENADA 50 X X( X) 48(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GRENADA 64 X X( X) 29(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 8( 8) 38(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-06-30 10:55:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...FORECAST TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Jun 30 the center of Beryl was located near 10.7, -53.1 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 7
2024-06-30 10:55:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 300855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...BERYL CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...FORECAST TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 53.1W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * Tobago A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 53.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands early on Monday and across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday night and Tuesday. Satellite estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, and Beryl is expected to become an extremely dangerous hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early on Monday. Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics