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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-06-13 22:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132033 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 2100 UTC SAT JUN 13 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.0W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 100.0W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 99.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.6N 100.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.1N 101.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 102.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 106.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 100.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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