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Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-05-21 22:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 212033 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019 The cyclone has lacked deep convection since early this morning, and therefore it no longer qualifies as either a tropical or a subtropical cyclone. Dry mid-level air, the influence of an upper-level low, and marginal SSTs should preclude re-development. The cyclone is likely to dissipate in a day or so as it becomes absorbed into a frontal zone. Post-tropical Andrea has turned to the east-northeast and the motion is about 070/7. The system should move mainly eastward within the mid-level westerlies until dissipation. This is the last advisory on Andrea. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 30.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 5

2019-05-21 22:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 212032 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 2100 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.3W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 68.3W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 68.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-05-21 16:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 211435 TCDAT1 Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event. The cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now essentially devoid of deep convection. In fact, at first glance, the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be the most dominant feature. Based on the lack of convection and a buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is being downgraded to a subtropical depression. Since the cyclone is expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or less. The system has moved a little more to the north than previously estimated and the initial motion is 360/7. Upper-level westerlies should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to but a little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 30.8N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 4

2019-05-21 16:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 211434 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Analysts Forecast Montney Production Surge Despite Challenges

2019-05-17 19:05:50| OGI

The increase is expected as operators improve completion designs and economics while battling low natural gas prices and infrastructure constraints.

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