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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 20A
2015-06-15 19:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151751 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 100 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS CARLOS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 102.8W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 102.8 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to and just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the coastline. Reports from an United States Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, once again making Carlos a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Carlos remains a small cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday morning. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Wednesday, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will affect the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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