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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 24
2015-06-16 16:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...CARLOS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 104.3W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos should move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. However, only a small deviation to the northeast of the forecast track would bring Carlos closer to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 24 hours, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Carlos remains a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area through this evening. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through Thursday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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