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Hurricane CARLOS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2015-06-16 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160231 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 0300 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 22(23) 18(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 1 19(20) 12(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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carlos
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