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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 38
2019-09-02 22:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 101 WTNT25 KNHC 022043 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA. THE STORM SURGE WATCH AND HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LANTANA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA * ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.4W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.4W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 78.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.6N 79.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.8N 78.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 110SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 36.6N 73.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 43.5N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 78.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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