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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 44
2019-09-04 10:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040854 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FL HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO POQUOSON VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL * NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER * NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET...FL TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY FL LINE * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 79.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 79.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.1N 79.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.2N 80.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.7N 77.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 38.0N 70.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 45.0N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 53.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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