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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 47
2019-09-05 04:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050254 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO POQUOSON VA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * HAMPTON ROADS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SAVANNAH RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SAVANNAH RIVER * NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VA TO FENWICK ISLAND DE * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO DRUM POINT * TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.2N 79.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.6N 78.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 35.2N 75.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.5N 72.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 45.0N 62.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 180SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 53.5N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 58.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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