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Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 12
2013-07-07 10:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070834 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ...ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 106.5W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO EAST OF MANZANILLO...AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...NAYARIT...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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