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Hurricane Florence Forecast Advisory Number 51
2018-09-12 04:52:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 554 WTNT21 KNHC 120252 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC WED SEP 12 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS... INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.7W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 68.7W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 68.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.4N 73.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.9N 75.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.8N 76.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.3N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.3N 79.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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