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Hurricane Francine Public Advisory Number 9A
2024-09-11 01:46:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102345 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... Corrected to add hurricane-force wind radius to the discussion and outlook section. SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Texas and Louisiana coasts east of High Island to Cameron * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 94.8 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana Wednesday afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into the Mississippi Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Wednesday morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) east of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area Wednesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Wednesday and Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...3-5 ft Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-11 01:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102336 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Francine, located in the western Gulf of Mexico, well offshore of southern Texas. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slight development during the next day or two while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of drier air on Thursday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93): A trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-09-11 01:03:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
519 ABPZ20 KNHC 102302 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 10 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the coast of southwestern Mexico extending offshore for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and towards the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics