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Hurricane Helene Forecast Advisory Number 9
2024-09-25 16:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 251456 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092024 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 86.3W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......210NE 240SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 86.3W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 86.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...270NE 270SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 250SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.3N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 330SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.6N 86.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.9N 87.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 36.6N 87.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-09-25 16:56:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico. The CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity, likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough. Convection has gradually become better organized based on geostationary infrared and visibly imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water. Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea surface temperatures. Statistical guidance even suggests there is an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and at the top of the guidance envelope. However, there is a chance John may become a hurricane prior to landfall. The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with an estimate motion of 80/2 kt. Models indicate that John will gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly towards the coast on Thursday. Regional and global models vary the timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF lingering offshore until Friday. The official track forecast calls for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this timing. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm John (EP5/EP102024)
2024-09-25 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JOHN REFORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.2, -101.4 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics