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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-09-25 16:56:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico. The CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity, likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough. Convection has gradually become better organized based on geostationary infrared and visibly imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water. Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea surface temperatures. Statistical guidance even suggests there is an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and at the top of the guidance envelope. However, there is a chance John may become a hurricane prior to landfall. The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with an estimate motion of 80/2 kt. Models indicate that John will gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly towards the coast on Thursday. Regional and global models vary the timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF lingering offshore until Friday. The official track forecast calls for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this timing. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm John (EP5/EP102024)
2024-09-25 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JOHN REFORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.2, -101.4 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Public Advisory Number 11
2024-09-25 16:55:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251455 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN REFORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 101.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 101.4 West. John is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion to the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday and move inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast within the hurricane watch area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
Category: Transportation and Logistics