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Hurricane Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-09-29 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Isaac Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 300 AM GMT Sun Sep 29 2024 Isaac continues to weaken tonight. Southwesterly shear and intrusions of drier mid-level air have eroded convection over the southern portion of the hurricane, and there is no longer a coherent eye feature in satellite images. A partial scatterometer pass shows a frontal zone in close proximity to the east of Isaac, signaling extratropical transition could begin soon. A blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak Current Intensity estimates with objective UW-CIMSS estimates supports lowering the intensity to 70 kt. As Isaac moves deeper into the mid-latitudes, it will cross even cooler waters and encounter increasing deep-layer shear. Thus, continued weakening is likely, and Isaac is expected to lose tropical characteristics soon and complete extratropical transition by Monday while becoming entangled with a nearby frontal system. The updated NHC forecast shows a faster rate of weakening in the near term. The wind radii of Isaac are likely to become increasingly asymmetric as the cyclone takes on frontal characteristics. Isaac is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. This general motion should continue for the next couple of days while Isaac remains embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow. The storm is forecast to turn more north-northeastward by midweek as an upper-level trough digs to the west of Isaac. There is more track spread in the guidance related to this interaction, and the extratropical portion of the NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly to the right of the previous prediction, following the latest multi-model consensus trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 42.1N 37.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 43.1N 36.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 44.2N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/1200Z 45.4N 30.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/0000Z 47.1N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1200Z 49.2N 27.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0000Z 51.1N 26.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z 55.0N 24.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0000Z 58.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2024-09-29 04:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 02:34:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2024 02:34:07 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-09-29 04:33:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce's low-level center remains exposed on the southwest side of bursting deep convection due to moderate-to-strong south-southwesterly shear. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates, and a recent ASCAT-C pass. Deep-layer shear is expected to continue affecting Joyce during the next couple of days, turning more out of the southwest or west, while the storm also moves through a relatively dry air mass. As a result, continued gradual weakening is anticipated, with Joyce potentially becoming a tropical depression by early Monday and a remnant low by early Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA corrected-consensus and the GFS/ECMWF global models. The remnant low is forecast to degenerate into a trough by Wednesday. Joyce has turned northwestward (305 deg) at 8 kt. An amplifying deep-layer trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Joyce to turn northward and slow down during the next couple of days. Depending on how much of Joyce is left in 2-3 days, it could accelerate toward the north-northeast ahead of the trough. The NHC track forecast is close to the GFEX consensus aid, and it's a little faster than the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 20.9N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.4N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 23.8N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 26.2N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics